Vietnam expects more positive economic recovery in H2
Standard Chartered Bank forecast that Vietnam's economy will recover in the second half of 2023 with GDP growth predicted to reach 7 per cent year-on-year, from 3.7 per cent in the first half of the year.
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Vietnam’s economy started the second half of this year with positive signals which are expected to pave the way for a better recovery in the coming time.
According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), in July, industrial production which can reflect many angles of the economy was better than the previous month.
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| A factory of Hanoi Plastic Company. (Photo: biodata.vn) |
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in July 2023 not only increased by 3.9 per cent compared to the previous month but also increased by 3.7 per cent compared to the same period last year. In particular, the IIP in July 2023 increased again in localities including Bac Ninh (up 23.8 per cent), Thai Nguyen (9 per cent), Vinh Phuc (5.8 per cent), Binh Duong (2.3 per cent), Ho Chi Minh City (1.9 per cent), and Long An (0.8 per cent).
In the first seven months, the IIP of 49 provinces and centrally-run cities increased and that of 14 others across the country decreased.
Increased industrial production probably implied positive signals for domestic consumption and exports. Data from the GSO showed that Vietnam’s export turnover in July 2023 reached 29.68 billion USD, up 0.8 per cent compared to June. Meanwhile, foreign investment attraction for the first time this year increased by 4.5 per cent from the same period last year, reaching nearly 16.24 billion USD.
The figures are quite consistent with the data on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of Vietnam's manufacturing industry that S&P Global has just released.
Accordingly, Vietnam's PMI rose to 48.7 points in July from 46.2 points in June. Although the number was still below 50 points, which showed production declined for the 5th consecutive month, this decline was quite mild and the lowest in this period.
Despite the modest increase in industrial production and exports, Vietnam’s tourism and services saw a positive recovery as the country welcomed more than 1 million international visitors in July, 6.5% higher than the previous month and 2.9 times higher than the same period last year.
In general, in the first seven months, Vietnam welcomed more than 6.6 million international visitors, 6.9 times higher than the same period last year.
Meanwhile, revenue from accommodation and food services in the first seven months of 2023 reached 377.3 trillion VND (15.88 billion USD), accounting for 10.7 per cent of the total retail sales of goods and services, up 16.3 per cent over the same period last year.
Tourism revenue reached 18.6 trillion VND, accounting for 0.5 per cent of total retail sales of goods and revenue of consumer services, up 53.6 per cent over the same period last year.
Localities that saw rising tourism revenues in the last seven months included Da Nang, up 99.7 per cent; Hanoi 89.7 per cent; Quang Ninh 82.5 per cent; and Khanh Hoa 75.1 per cent.
International organizations through their latest reports also forecast a more positive outlook for Vietnam's economy in the second half of the year.
Standard Chartered Bank forecast that Vietnam's economy will recover in the second half of 2023 with GDP growth predicted to reach 7 per cent year-on-year, from 3.7 per cent in the first half of the year.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Vietnam's economic growth will recover in the second half of 2023 thanks to the recovery of exports and the loosening of domestic policies.
Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong said that to overcome economic difficulties, it is necessary to implement drastic and effective solutions to speed up the disbursement of public investment, stimulate consumption and investment demand, and boost exports as they are important growth drivers of the economy.
(Source: VNA)
