Key findings from the workshop on the preliminary results of the assessment of the NZE scenario

As reminded by Mr. John Cotton, the ETP Director, the ETP program has multiple sponsors with a budget mobilized from Southeast Asian countries since 2020. “We are interested in evaluating different scenarios for implementing Net-Zero commitments. This study is beneficial for Vietnam to fulfill its commitments at COP26.” Mr. John Cotton said.

On behalf of the domestic consulting organizations, Ms. Pham Thu Hang, CEO of VietStar, said, “To achieve the Net-Zero targets by 2050, which have been committed by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at COP26 in 2021, Vietnam needs significant investments and deep transformation across all sectors of the economy.”

The Net-Zero Scenario Diagnostic Study for the Vietnamese Energy Sector aims to analyze the transformation period of the energy sector and the economy to ensure carbon reduction and maintain energy security and a fair, rational energy transition. The study takes into account the recently approved Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8) and National Energy Master Plan (EMP) for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision toward 2050. This study will support the Government of Vietnam in realizing the EMP and aligning with the objectives of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP).

E4SMA consultants have shared key results illustrating how to achieve net zero, such as the contribution of all sectors, including industry and transportation, which are harder to decarbonize; the role of renewable energy, including bioenergy; the potential contribution of gas as a transitionary solution; the need of innovative technologies and fuels (carbon capture, hydrogen, synthetic fuels, co-firing); the needed investments and the impacts on imports and jobs. Sensitivity analyses consider accelerated mitigation proposed by JETP, accelerated economic growth, and different views on CCUS.

Mr. Pham Van Tan, Deputy Head of the Climate Change Department (MONRE), said, “In 2025, MONRE plans to review the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to assess what Vietnam's efforts can achieve and enhance the 2022 NDC plan to reflect reality better”. Moreover, he acknowledged that “The study relies on many assumptions, based on updated documents in Vietnam such as the NDC 2022, the National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS), Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8), and the National Energy Master Plan.”, and therefore, the sensitivity analyses are essential.

Sharing additional insights on the energy sector transformation in the Net-Zero Scenario, Mr. Ramus Munch, Program Director of the Vietnam-Denmark Energy Partnership, mentioned, "This workshop has highlighted a clearer focus compared to the second workshop.” He also explained that “Denmark has created 100,000 jobs in the new energy sector. The exchange of information about social policies between Denmark and Vietnam will be beneficial.”

Representatives from EVN and PVN explained that their enterprises also share responsibilities to fulfill Vietnam's commitments at COP26. This report is incredibly beneficial for these enterprises because it helps them define their pathways. They raised the issue of the penetration of LNG, which requires heavy infrastructure and, therefore, a long-term use to be financially viable.

Mr. Pham Hoang Luong, the local project leader, confirmed that the feedback from stakeholders and their perspectives/opinions on policy recommendations for implementing the Net-Zero scenario will be carefully considered in the final analyses of the NZE scenario. The consulting organizations are working diligently toward the Final Workshop, planned for October 2023.

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