Rice export prices are unlikely to break through
Rice exports are increasing in both output and value. However, the export price of rice is not as good as in 2021, although recently, many countries have fallen into a food crisis, food prices in many countries have increased.
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| Rice export prices are unlikely to break through. (Source: quocphongthudo) |
Many rice exporters continue to forecast that the export price of rice is unlikely to have a strong breakthrough when the price of wheat has returned to the level before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the supply from major rice producing countries is also low. are abundant. The market expects new breakout signals.
Mr. Nguyen Van Don - Director of Viet Hung Co., Ltd. assessed that, in general, market demand is weak and purchasing power is not high. Since the beginning of the year, Vietnam's rice exports have been mainly exported to the Philippines, while exports to China have declined. However, the Philippines market mainly has the demand to import rice with medium price.
Other markets are still stable but import volume is not high. Therefore, it is likely that the rice market will continue to be quiet until the end of the summer-autumn rice harvest.
According to the Vietnam Food Association, Vietnam's rice export price on August 17 was lower than Thailand but higher than India and Pakistan. Specifically, 5% broken rice reached 393 USD/ton; 378 USD/ton with 25% broken rice. Meanwhile, Thai rice reached 418 USD/ton with 5% broken rice; $396/ton with 25% broken rice. Prices of 5% broken rice of India and Pakistan are 343 USD/ton and 368 USD/ton, respectively.
Statistics from the General Department of Customs show that in the first seven months of 2022, the country's rice exports reached nearly 4.08 million tons, equivalent to over $1.99 billion, up 17.3% in volume, up 6%. In terms of turnover over the same period, the average export price reached 488.9 USD/ton, down 9.6%.
The Philippines still ranks first in Vietnam's rice consumption, accounting for 48.6% of total exports and 46.4% of the country's total rice exports, reaching 1.98 million tons, equivalent to 924. $88 million, up nearly 67% in volume, 40% in turnover but down 10.9% in price.
Followed by the Chinese market accounted for over 11.4% of the total volume and 12.2% of the total turnover, reaching 466,225 tons, equivalent to USD 242.74 million, down 28% in both volume and turnover; prices decreased slightly by 1% over the same period in 2021.
Evaluation of the export price of rice this year was not as expected when the world food demand was high recently, said Mr. Do Ha Nam - Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), Chairman of the Board of Directors cum General Manager of the Vietnam Food Association. Director of Intimex Group Joint Stock Company said that normally when food is out of season and goods are in short supply, the price will go up. In fact, this year, the major rice producing countries have good crops, increased output, high inventories, while demand remains the same. Therefore, the price will naturally go down.
Besides, when countries have high food demand, Vietnam also pours an excessive amount of supply. The proof is that Vietnam's rice export volume has increased by nearly 20% compared to last year.
“Inventories of importing countries start to increase, prices will hardly increase. While other countries have a good season, products must be sold," said Mr. Do Ha Nam.
Assessing the major rice import markets, Mr. Do Ha Nam said that exporting rice to the Chinese market faced many difficulties, mainly due to the COVID-19 epidemic. Besides, this year, China has a high demand for ST rice, but Vietnam does not have enough to meet it. ST rice mainly serves the domestic market. While in the past, this market mainly imported sticky rice, sticky rice. With the situation of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, the demand for imports will decrease, because the demand for rice for processing into products will be lower, due to the decrease in consumer demand.
With the Philippines market, from now until the end of the year, it will be difficult to have a breakthrough growth. Because from the beginning of the year until now, this market has increased by 20% over the same period. In addition to the fact that the country is starting to harvest, the growth of this market will be difficult.
With the African market, Mr. Do Ha Nam said, this market has not had a breakthrough, the export volume is still the same every year.
Although the market currently has not had many positive signals, Mr. Do Ha Nam said that from now until the end of the year, rice exports will be about 2 million tons. Rice exports in 2022 will still reach over 6 million tons with a value of about 3 billion USD. However, it is difficult to expect the price to rise.
According to the Department of Agricultural Product Processing and Market Development, rice prices in the Mekong Delta provinces fluctuated up and down in July, with high-quality rice recording a significant decrease. Rainy weather for many days causes the quality of summer-autumn rice to decrease continuously, while the area of ripe rice is increasing in localities. Compared with the beginning of July, the price of rice has decreased by 200-400 VND/kg due to bad weather affecting rice quality and weak demand.
The drop in rice prices is also due to the fact that exporters have reduced rice purchases from farmers, waiting for the peak harvest and waiting for buying signals from major markets such as the Philippines and China.
Mr. Nguyen Van Don expects that the market will be active again, but so far, the market has not shown any clear signs for rice prices to increase.
However, many rice traders also forecast that Vietnam's export rice price will not decrease further because the Mekong Delta is nearing the end of the summer-autumn crop, the supply will gradually decrease.
(Source: VNA)
